Today, the residents of Crimea live under conditions of electricity and water supply disruptions, without reserves and without fuel, as Ukrainian drones strike energy sources near military facilities.
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Due to frequent power outages, mobile communication disappears, public transport practically no longer runs, and the sale of fuel to individuals and companies is prohibited. Prices have skyrocketed, and the tourist season, on which many depend financially, ended without even starting.
Moreover, it has become almost impossible for many to leave Crimea. Ukrainian drones have destroyed bridges and now control the land route through occupied southern Ukraine to Russia. It seems that Ukraine’s campaign to isolate Crimea is shifting the balance of power in the south of the country. As a result, many Ukrainians believe that the war will end precisely in occupied Crimea.
Crimea is the “golden key”
According to Politico, Crimea is indeed special. The war in Ukraine began with its annexation in 2014, turning the peninsula into an almost sacred symbol of Russian imperial power.
Over the past decade, Russia has turned the peninsula into a military base, allowing its forces to occupy part of southern Ukraine during the large-scale invasion launched in 2022. Crimea became a secure rear battlefield, supplying Russia’s southern front, and its residents were relatively protected from the war.
This summer, the situation changed dramatically. As noted in the article, due to Ukraine’s advantage in medium-range strike drones, it can weaken or perhaps even destroy part of Russia’s military potential in the south of the country, disrupting the logistics that ensure the functioning of the Russian army.
Ukraine hopes this will force Russia to redeploy its forces from other front sectors, reducing pressure on the Ukrainian army and also decreasing Russian attacks on cities.
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Crimea also has great personal significance for V. Putin, whose popularity inside the country surged after the peninsula was forcibly returned to Russian control. Losing Crimea would deal a direct blow to his reputation and could cause dissatisfaction with his leadership and the war within the country.
“Crimea is the golden key to Russia’s imperial ambitions,” said former deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, Ilya Pavlenko.
But can this end with the peninsula being returned to Ukraine? Russia has prepared for decades to seize Crimea through military, economic, educational, and propaganda means, Pavlenko noted. Ukraine must employ an equally broad range of tactics.
“We have always said that Crimea is Ukraine, and Ukraine will use all means to reclaim Crimea. Crimea cannot be reclaimed by military means alone… Now we are applying military pressure to give our diplomats the opportunity to sit at the negotiating table and say: ‘We will not leave Crimea aside,'” he said.
However, while Ukraine hopes to make holding the peninsula even harder and more expensive for Russia than it is now, reclaiming it will likely be just as difficult and costly for Ukraine itself.
“I believe that the liberation of Crimea is possible. But not in the near future,” assessed Andriy Zahorodniuk, chairman of the analytical center Centre for Defence Strategies.
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