The “Order” inserted into the military ID, which obliges those who receive it to report to the assembly point upon mobilization, could have been received by several hundred thousand Russians, says Timofey Vaskin, head of the legal department of the organization “Conscription School”.
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A mass phenomenon
Military commissariats have distributed mobilization orders before – both before the war and after it started, but in 2026 this practice became widespread.
“We do not know the exact numbers because this information is classified. However, judging by reports on social networks and inquiries we and our colleagues – lawyers working on conscription issues – receive, the increase was dramatic, by tens of times,” Timofey Vaskin told Deutsche Welle.
This is also confirmed by statistics from Russian internet search engines. According to Yandex Wordstat data, the number of queries about what a “mobilization order” is has increased by more than 800% since the beginning of the year: there were 7,154 in January and 65,048 in August. This is the highest figure since September-October 2022, when 300,000 Russians were forcibly conscripted to fight against Ukraine.
The summons to the military commissariat “to clarify data” does not necessarily mean that these people will be mobilized, drafted, or sent to the front, emphasizes Artyom Klyga, head of the legal department of the organization “Dvizhenie soznatelnykh otkazchikov” (Movement of Conscientious Objectors). However, if mobilization were to begin, it would help the authorities quickly gather the required number of people, he explained.
“This should be seen as follows: officials were tasked with preparing a system for any decision by (Vladimir) Putin. And if that decision were mobilization, they are expected to be ready,” A. Klyga told Deutsche Welle.
6,000 soldiers short every month
According to the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Russian army currently loses more than 40,000 people per month at the front – killed and wounded. Although the contract soldier recruitment mechanism continues to operate, it is not enough to replace soldiers lost from the ranks. Western intelligence estimates that this “gap” amounts to about 6,000 people per month – the flow of new “volunteers” lags behind losses by that number.
“It remains unclear how long the army will be able to maintain the current offensive pace… without carrying out some form of mobilization,” ISW writes. Western intelligence notes preparations for mass conscription in regions where the Russian Defense Ministry is inspecting training grounds and the army’s ability to supply recruits with food and weapons.
A Kremlin-linked source told The Economist that Vladimir Putin plans to send an additional 300,000-400,000 Russians to the front without officially announcing a new mobilization. It is believed that the conscription task will be assigned to regional authorities, who will use pressure to keep dissatisfaction at the local level. The new system is already being tested in the Penza region, where men are detained on the streets and forcibly sent to war, sources said.
