The difficult situation in the Lyman region was also acknowledged by the “Z” channel “Rybar,” associated with the Russian Ministry of Defense.
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Chronology of the offensive
The Ukrainian forces’ counteroffensive lasted about four months, writes C. Molinas. According to him, on May 22, Ukrainian soldiers launched a large mechanized assault east of Izium, in the direction of the village of Novoe. At the beginning of June, this settlement was essentially liberated.
At the end of July, the Ukrainian armed forces began moving east of Novoe, in the Novomykhailivka district. By mid-August, Ukrainian soldiers reached the northern edge of Kolodezi, and on August 24, they launched another successful mechanized assault between Katerynivka and Novoliubivka, claims C. Molinas.
At the beginning of September, Ukrainian soldiers managed to cut the base of the Russian wedge, the analyst asserts. According to his assessment, as a result, the Ukrainian armed forces liberated more than 200 sq. km (which roughly corresponds to the area of the Russian city of Yaroslavl). However, Russian forces remain west of Kolodezi, so the counteroffensive is not yet complete.
About the Ukrainian forces’ attempt to cut off the Russian bridgehead on the western bank of the Zherebets River, in the Sredne and Deryolove districts, on August 25, wrote a war researcher from Poland on the “Thorkill” channel. According to him, an important success was achieved by Ukrainian soldiers around August 18, when they captured a Russian stronghold north of Kolodezi and cut the Kolodezi-Ivanivka road.
On the same day, the “Rybar” channel reported that the Ukrainian armed forces were trying to “cut off” the wedge. Two days later, the channel called the situation near Lyman “worrying” and acknowledged that in several areas the initiative had shifted to the Ukrainian soldiers.
Operational security regime
During the counteroffensive, the Ukrainian side adhered to an operational security regime, noted C. Molinas. In mid-July, another French OSINT analyst “Playfra” reported “good news” and the Ukrainian armed forces’ counteroffensive actions near Lyman but refused to disclose details, citing operational security requirements.
The offensive was known in the OSINT community for quite some time, but many researchers refrained from publishing until reports from the Ukrainian side appeared, confirmed K. Michailov to the “Agentstvo” portal. In his opinion, publicizing details now may indicate that Ukrainian forces have firmly established themselves in the recaptured territory.
The project “DeepState,” associated with the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, has not yet confirmed the scale of wedge elimination described by C. Molinas. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) also reported on September 7 that it cannot yet determine the full scale of Ukrainian counterattacks near Lyman.
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“ISW is currently not ready to assess the scale or results of these actions. In recent days, there has been an increase in reports from Russian sources and open data about ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks in the Lyman area.
Ukrainian forces recently proved they control Sviatohirsk (northwest of Lyman) and that the Russian military is not present in this settlement – this was also acknowledged by Russian “military bloggers.” However, there is currently little evidence to accurately assess the territories controlled by Russian and Ukrainian forces in the Lyman direction.
The ISW mapping methodology underestimates the likely scale of Ukrainian gains during the ongoing counterattacks in the Lyman direction. It is likely that over time, additional publicly available information will reveal the full extent of Ukrainian forces’ achievements in this direction. ISW will continue to update its assessments as more evidence becomes available,” the ISW analysts’ assessment states.
Why it matters
C. Molinas called this operation one of the most important Ukrainian victories this year. In his assessment, the loss of the wedge will complicate the Russian offensive towards Lyman and further towards Izium and Sloviansk, while giving Ukrainian forces additional time to strengthen their defense.
The success of the Ukrainian armed forces will protect the left flank of Sloviansk’s defense, preventing the Russian army from reaching the Sviatohirsk heights, from which it could control logistics routes to Sloviansk, said a CIT representative.
“Thorkill” evaluates the operation’s significance more cautiously. At the beginning of September, he classified the Ukrainian forces’ advance near Lyman as a tactical success in a secondary direction and stated that it has not yet changed the overall operational situation. He identified the most important front lines as the Kramatorsk agglomeration, Dobropillia, and Orikhiv directions.
Unsuccessful Russian summer campaign
The Ukrainian armed forces’ counteroffensive took place against the backdrop of an unsuccessful Russian military summer campaign. This is how its results were assessed by ISW and Emil Kastehelmi, an analyst from the Finnish OSINT project “BlackBird Group.”
According to “BlackBird Group,” the net Russian territorial gain in August was about 133 sq. km. Although the pace of Russian advances began to increase in July and August, it remained significantly lower than last year.
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