At the Financial Times Weekend Festival held in London on Saturday, former head of the United Kingdom’s intelligence service MI6, John Sawers, stated that an agreement between Russia and Ukraine by next spring is unlikely.
According to him, long-term peace is also hard to imagine as long as Vladimir Putin leads Russia.
John Sawers told Financial Times journalists that peace talks could begin by the end of 2027. The expert emphasized that Ukraine and Russia face a tough winter, and as losses continue to grow for both countries, there may be an incentive to seek a path to peace.
“Under the current circumstances, the best that can be expected is a return to the level of hostilities seen in 2014,” said the former MI6 head.
In 2014, after Ukraine’s Maidan revolution, Russia annexed Crimea. This marked the beginning of the conflict that escalated into a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Sawers’ comments came as US envoys arrived in Moscow with what US President Donald Trump called a “proposal to end the war.” The US president did not disclose details of the plan or indicate whether the Kremlin is ready to seek a compromise.
Currently chairman of the consulting firm Newbridge Advisory, Sawers said it is good that the Americans “are trying to establish contact and talk with Putin,” although he added he is “not very confident in their envoys.” According to him, Putin’s demands are “unfounded and remain so.”
The British intelligence chief said the possibility of agreeing on successful ceasefires could arise in 2027.
“If the cost borne by both sides continues to increase and Russian forces do not make renewed progress on the battlefield,” said the expert.
Sawers also emphasized that voices questioning the purpose of the war in Ukraine are increasing in Russia.
Last month, the Kremlin dismissed the chief economist of one of the largest state financial institutions after he stated that losses from strikes in Ukraine “are already becoming a noticeable obstacle to Russia’s economic growth.”
According to Sawers, political unrest is also increasing in Ukraine – influential voices are beginning to doubt Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
It is not exactly clear when they will arrive in Ukraine
US President Donald Trump announced on Friday that he is sending his envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Moscow and Kyiv with a plan to end the more than four-year-long war in Ukraine.
This move is the latest Washington attempt to break the diplomatic deadlock in the bloodiest European conflict since World War II, which began in 2022 when Russia launched a large-scale invasion of Ukraine.
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A senior Ukrainian official told AFP news agency that the envoys are expected in Kyiv on Sunday.
Before heading to Kyiv, on Saturday Witkoff and Kushner spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow for more than three hours. The meeting took place in the Kremlin and ended late in the evening. Afterward, Kremlin spokesman Yuri Ushakov described the talks as “useful,” “constructive,” and “very open,” but no specific agreement or breakthrough was reported.
According to the Kremlin, possible conditions for ending the war and further US and Russian actions were discussed during the meeting. The White House, in turn, reported that the envoys presented several ideas, and more concrete next steps should become clear in the coming weeks.
Putin himself said at the start of the meeting that the situation in Ukraine is complicated, but Russia is making progress on the battlefield and is confident it will achieve its goals. He also thanked Donald Trump for efforts to end the war.
