The US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) – an analytical center analyzing military conflicts and geopolitical events – reported on Monday that many of the “Rassvet” satellites, which are part of Russia’s planned “Starlink”-type communication network, remain at an altitude of 300–400 kilometers.
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According to the institute, some of them are losing altitude, and at least two are approaching re-entry into the atmosphere.
Only 12 of the 32 “Rassvet” satellites launched this year have reached a stable operating altitude, ISW noted, adding that Russia “is likely to continue facing difficulties in developing an analogue of the Starlink satellite system.”
Moscow accelerated the implementation of this project after Russian forces lost access to Starlink in February. Russian forces had unofficially acquired SpaceX terminals and used them for battlefield communications and drone operations.
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According to Ukrainian military intelligence, Russian satellites are being launched faster than expected. However, the latest orbital data shows that this pace does not ensure reliable satellite deployment.
Moscow plans to have 292 satellites in orbit by 2027, and 924 by 2035. A much larger satellite system would allow Russia to use a smaller Starlink-type version for military communications and remotely controlled drones.
However, as ISW states, due to the limited number of Soyuz launch rockets, Russia may find it difficult to achieve these goals in the near future.