In July, the social expectations index (optimism index) of the Russian pollsters VCIOM reached minus 65 percent. This indicator reflects how optimistically Russians assess the country’s future: sociologists ask respondents whether Russia is experiencing its hardest times now, if they are already in the past, or if they are still ahead. The index is calculated by subtracting the share of those who think the hardest times have already passed from the sum of those who believe the hard times are now or are yet to come.
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Over the month, the index fell by 2 percentage points (from –63 percent). In May, this indicator was minus 56 percent. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, the VCIOM optimism index reached its highest level in January 2024 (–20 percent).
The last time the optimism index was below the level of July 2026 was in November 2020 (–67 percent), and in November 2021 it was at the same level as in July 2026 (–63 percent).
66 percent of Russians believe: the hardest times are still ahead
The share of Russians who believe the hardest times are still ahead has increased significantly since December last year. At that time, it was 44 percent. In April, this indicator reached 61 percent, in May – 60 percent, in June – 63 percent, and in July – 66 percent, reports “Agentstvo.”
The last time so many VCIOM respondents said that the hardest times are still to come was in May 2020. This indicator has not been higher since April 2020, when it reached an all-time high (72 percent) during the height of the pandemic.
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12 percent believe the hardest times are now
At the same time, 12 percent of survey participants in July answered that Russia is already experiencing its hardest times. Thus, the share of those who believe the hardest times have either already come or are yet to come is 78 percent. A month earlier, 14 percent of respondents said that the hardest times had already begun.
Other VCIOM indicators also testify to a significant deterioration in the assessment of Russia’s situation. In June, the country’s situation assessment index dropped to zero – the worst value since November 2021. At the same time, the shares of those who positively and negatively assess Russia’s situation were equal at 46 percent.
Such survey data are published as Ukraine intensifies strikes against Russian oil refineries and the logistics center “Wildberries” warehouses.
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