War in Ukraine. Analysts explained Putin’s strategy: why the Kremlin rejects peace talks

Latvian army will continue demolition work on downed drone on Saturday to neutralize it

10:18

Demolition work to safely neutralize a downed drone will continue on Saturday in the Rugaji district in northeastern Latvia, the National Armed Forces (NBS) stated.

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Explosions may be heard in surrounding areas during this work, the statement said.

According to the NBS, local residents do not need to take any additional precautions. The work will be carried out by NBS unexploded ordnance disposal specialists, following established requirements and safety procedures.

On Friday at about 4 a.m. local (and Lithuanian) time, an airspace threat was declared in the municipalities of Upper Daugava, Preili, Rēzekne, Balvi, and Alūksne in Latvia, which was lifted at 4:50 a.m.

At that time, NATO air defense mission fighters successfully shot down a foreign drone that entered Latvian airspace over Balvi municipality.

Rugaji administration head Sandra Kapteine said the drone was shot down near Lake Boževo, about five kilometers from the center of Rugaji village in Balvi municipality in northeastern Latvia.

She emphasized that the drone was shot down in a forested area and that neither residents nor any property were harmed.

Current data indicates the drone entered Latvian airspace due to Russian electronic warfare actions.

The drone was shot down at a high altitude, so its debris may be scattered over a large area, said Iveta Berzinia, a representative of the Latvian Armed Forces Joint Staff.

Infant killed and 11 others injured, including children, in Russian attack in Dnipropetrovsk region

10:15

A three-month-old boy was killed and 11 others injured, including two children, in a Russian attack in the Dnipropetrovsk region, reported the head of the regional military administration Oleksandr Hanža.

His post on the Telegram platform said that during the Russian drone strike last night in Marhanets, a residential multi-story building was hit.

Seven of the injured were taken to hospital in critical condition, Hanža said.

Among the injured are two children – a five-year-old boy and a 12-year-old girl, he added.

Ukrainian Air Forces reported on Telegram that Russia attacked Ukraine last night with 152 drones and small winged missiles “Banderol”. 124 drones and three missiles were shot down or intercepted. Hits were recorded at 16 locations and drone debris fell in one place.

Ukraine struck Russian military airbase from which ballistic missiles are launched

10:14

Monitoring channels reported on Saturday that Ukrainian forces struck the Russian Savasleik military airbase at night, where MiG-31 fighters capable of launching “Kinzhal” ballistic missiles are stationed.

The Ukrainian portal “The Kyiv Independent” reported this.

According to the monitoring channel “Exilenova Plus,” fires were seen on the territory of the airbase in Russia’s Lower Naugard region after explosions.

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Explosions were also reported in the Russian city of Samara, with claims that Ukrainian “Flamingo” missiles were used in this attack.

Meanwhile, the monitoring channel “Supernova Plus” said a major aviation and space design and manufacturing facility may have been hit.

Samara region governor Viacheslav Fedorishchev confirmed that missiles struck an “industrial facility” in the region but did not provide details.

The institution is still investigating whether there are casualties or other damage, Fedorishchev added.

Samara is about 800 km from the Ukraine-Russia border, and the Savasleik military airbase is about 660 km from Ukraine.

Analysts explained Putin’s strategy: why the Kremlin rejects peace talks

10:09

Despite repeated Ukrainian proposals to negotiate peace, the Kremlin continues to reject all initiatives. Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe that Moscow’s position is related not only to military but also to domestic political strategy.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated on Friday that Moscow would not agree to a ceasefire that would freeze the current front line. According to him, Russia will continue the war until it achieves a “long-term, reliable, and sustainable” agreement on its terms.

Similarly, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev said that Russia would stop or end the war in Ukraine “only” on its own terms.

ISW assesses that the Kremlin may demonstratively reject the very idea of negotiations to rally society around a pro-war political stance ahead of the Russian State Duma elections scheduled for September 18–20.

Analysts emphasize that the constant rejection of Ukrainian proposals for ceasefires and peace shows Moscow’s unwillingness to end the war if the agreement does not meet its maximalist demands.

Also rejected a limited proposal regarding the Black Sea

ISW also noted Russia’s reaction to Turkey and Ukraine’s proposal to stop strikes on maritime targets in the Black Sea.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan announced on August 8 that Ankara proposed a mutual moratorium on strikes against commercial ships in the Black Sea to Russia and Ukraine.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova later stated that Moscow had not received an official request from Turkey. At the same time, she said she saw no reason to take “half-measures” that would give Ukraine a temporary respite.

ISW assesses that this reaction essentially meant rejection of the proposal.

“Maria Zakharova’s obvious disapproval of the limited ceasefire proposal in the Black Sea by Turkey and Ukraine shows Russia’s consistent unwillingness to participate in any meaningful negotiations, even if their scope would be limited,” analysts note.

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