A post circulating on the “Facebook” network comparing statistical data from different periods questions the benefits of medical, technological, and overall human progress. The author points out that the overall mortality rate in Lithuania is said to be almost unchanged from 90 years ago, and ironically adds: “With all today’s progress…”
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As another supposed proof of the deterioration of public health, the increased registered prevalence of autism, a higher number of doctors, and more frequent visits to medical institutions are presented.
According to the post’s author, a century ago people sought medical help much less often, many ailments were treated at home, but, as ironically noted, “they did not die out with such health care.”
So what about that statistics?
The mortality figures presented in the post are basically correct. In 1936–1939 in Lithuania, there were about 13.2 deaths per thousand inhabitants, and in 2025, 37,491 people died – calculating approximately 2.89 million inhabitants, this amounts to about 13 deaths per 1,000 inhabitants. However, drawing conclusions about medical progress or public health status from just these two numbers is incorrect.
The problem is that the so-called crude mortality rate – the number of deaths per 1,000 inhabitants – is being compared. This indicator heavily depends on the age structure of the population: the more elderly people there are, the higher the crude mortality can be, even when people in each specific age group live longer and die less frequently.
The numbers compared on social networks at first glance indeed look almost identical: in 1936–1939 in Lithuania there were 13.2 deaths per thousand inhabitants, and in 2025 – 1,297.7 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, or almost 13 per thousand.
However, comparing only the crude mortality rate hides a huge difference – the ages of the people who died then and now.
This is very clearly shown by the interwar mortality tables. In 1925, 37,179 people died in Lithuania, of whom as many as 11,407 were infants under one year old. Thus, almost a third – 30.7% – of all deaths that year were infant deaths. More than a fifth of the 54,351 children in this age group died annually. Another 3,974 deaths were among children aged 1–4 years.
Thus, deaths of children under five years old alone accounted for more than 15,000, or about 41% of all registered deaths that year. The situation was still similar in 1932: out of 36,577 deaths, 10,900 were infants under one year, and another 2,657 were children aged 1–4 years.
Statistics for 2025 show essentially the opposite picture. Of the 37,491 deceased, only 120 were aged 0–17 years, and as many as 29,441, or 78.5%, were 65 years and older. Separate data show that 56 infants and 64 children aged 1 to 17 years died during the year.
So, although the total number of deaths in 1925 and 2025 is surprisingly similar – 37,179 and 37,491 respectively – more than 200 times more infants died a century ago than now.
The structure of deaths also differs. In 2025, more than half of all deaths – 51.3% – were caused by circulatory system diseases, another 21.2% by malignant tumors. Only 21.2% of all deceased were of working age, 16–64 years. In other words, today the crude mortality rate is mostly shaped by older people, while in interwar statistics a huge part was deaths at the very beginning of life.
Therefore, similar 13.2 and 13 deaths per thousand inhabitants do not mean that people’s chances of survival or medical results have not changed over 90 years.
On the contrary – the age data presented show that behind almost identical overall rates lies a radically different reality: in 1925, more than four out of ten deaths were children under five years old, while in 2025 almost eight out of ten were people aged 65 and older.
Methodological changes in autism diagnosis
The number mentioned in the “Facebook” post that about one in 127 people are on the autism spectrum is not fabricated. According to the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study estimate, about 61.8 million people were on the autism spectrum.
However, this indicator cannot be directly compared with data published several decades ago, nor can the difference be used to conclude that autism prevalence has increased dozens of times.
The researchers themselves indicated that the much higher new estimate compared to the previous one – about one in 271 people – primarily arose from changes in counting methodology and abandoning studies that systematically underestimated autism prevalence.
Autism spectrum disorder is neurological in nature. The brains of people with it differ structurally and chemically. Because of this, autistic people experience and perceive the world differently. This can manifest as unusual behavior, individual learning needs, different emotional reactions, and communication.
Initially, it was thought that symptoms characteristic of autism were caused by common causes at genetic, cognitive, and neural levels. Over time, more evidence emerged that it is a complex and hereditary disorder, with various aspects caused by different causes, often occurring together.
The exact causes of autism are still unknown. It is believed that both genetic and environmental factors, such as pollution, influence its development. Specialists also mention stress during pregnancy, premature birth, low birth weight, even lower infant mortality, in other words, the more infants survive, the higher the chance that among them will be those who have this disorder.
But the main reasons why the number of autistic people suddenly increased are different: better understanding of this disorder, its acceptance, and awareness about it.
Studies show that people who know more about autism or know someone with this disorder are more likely to seek help for similar symptoms themselves.
“It may be that autism has always been prevalent and we are only beginning to record its true extent due to better research,” noted Dr. Peter J. Chung, medical director of the Autism and Neurodevelopmental Disorders Center at the University of California, Irvine, and developmental and behavioral pediatrician.
For example, in the USA, many more children are screened for autism, so it is diagnosed more often. The World Health Organization estimates that 1 in 100 children worldwide may be autistic, but this rate varies in different studies and may be even higher in reality. More accurate statistics are hindered by the fact that some countries do not have them at all.
Another obstacle is that there are no tests to diagnose autism; the diagnosis is made simply by observing behavior.
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The better specialists understand the disorder, the more children are brought for examination, the more cases can be detected. Now they successfully diagnose autism in children with normal IQ and without intellectual disability, who simply have more difficulty coping with daily tasks or perform worse in class.
Moreover, in recent decades, the definition of autism spectrum disorder has been increasingly expanded. The term “childhood autism” (early onset or classic) was first used in 1943.
Only in 1980 did autism become a separate diagnosis, with 6 criteria defined for it, and in 1987 – 16, but that was not the end.
Visited doctors less often, but that does not mean they were healthier
The claim circulated in the “Facebook” post that a hundred years ago people needed doctors’ help less often confuses the use of medical services with the need for them.
The fact that people sought doctors less often a hundred years ago does not mean they were healthier.
During the interwar period, the network of doctors and medical institutions was much smaller, especially in the provinces, so professional medical help was simply less accessible to part of the population.
The shortage of doctors in villages was partly compensated by herbalists, charmers, and other folk healers – this is not proof that their help was sufficient or that people were ill less often.
On the contrary – part of the population simply did not survive to older age. With an average life expectancy of about 50 years, many children did not reach five years old, women died much more often due to pregnancy and childbirth complications, and infectious diseases such as tuberculosis, diphtheria, or typhoid were common and dangerous.
Therefore, a lower number of visits to doctors is not proof of better health. It rather indicates limited medical accessibility and that some people died from diseases before receiving help.
If you don’t know – it means you are not sick?
“90% of people have at least one illness per year – maybe they had it then too, they just didn’t know,” the “Facebook” post claims. This creates the impression that earlier people simply did not know about diseases, did not treat them, and still recovered, and today the large number of diagnosed health disorders itself shows a sharply increased morbidity in society.
The number mentioned in the post has a real basis. In 2015, in the GBD 2013 analysis published in the journal “The Lancet,” it was calculated that about 95% of the world’s population had at least one health disorder. However, this category is very broad – it includes not only severe or chronic diseases but also conditions such as dental caries, headaches, or colds.
Therefore, the high prevalence of health disorders itself does not prove that modern people are sicker or in worse health than a hundred years ago.
The fact that a disease was not diagnosed or treated does not mean it did not exist or went away on its own – untreated diseases could cause long-term pain, disability, other daily life inconveniences, or complications that modern medicine often helps to avoid or reduce.
The hunger problem is not that simple
The “Facebook” post states that “1.05 billion tons of food waste would be enough for all the hungry.” This claim is based on correct numbers but looks at the global hunger problem too simplistically.
According to the United Nations Environment Programme UNEP, data show that in 2022 about 1.05 billion tons of food waste were generated worldwide, or an average of 132 kg per person.
At least a billion meal portions are wasted daily in households – theoretically, this would equal about 1.3 portions per day for every hungry person.
However, concluding from this that global hunger could simply be solved by “redistributing” wasted food would be wrong. There is indeed enough food in the world, but hunger arises not only due to its overall shortage.
The main reasons are poverty, wars and conflicts, disrupted logistics, infrastructure, food distribution, and people’s ability to purchase it.
That is why UNEP emphasizes that reducing food waste is an important part of the problem but does not by itself solve global hunger.
15min verdict: lacks context. The post uses many real or source-based numbers, but they are presented without essential historical, demographic, and methodological context.
Almost identical crude mortality rates hide the fact that in the interwar period a huge part of deaths were infant and young child deaths, while today most people die at 65 years and older.
The increase in autism prevalence rates is largely explained by changed diagnostic criteria, better recognition of the disorder, and counting methodology, and less frequent visits to doctors a hundred years ago are not proof that people were less sick then.
Therefore, the general conclusion drawn from these numbers that medical and technological progress has not improved people’s health or even worsened it does not correspond to what the presented data actually show.
Publication prepared by 15min in cooperation with Meta, aiming to stop the spread of misleading news on social networks. More about the program and its rules – here.
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