As reported by the Ukrainian portal UNIAN, analyzing the situation at the front, M. Raisner noted that in order to achieve a noticeable breakthrough, it will not be enough for the Russians to simply send additional troops, because the method of warfare has changed so much that the decisive difference is guaranteed by the use of special weapon systems, first of all – drones.
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“At the tactical level, a stalemate has developed, as both sides have created a ‘transparent battlefield’. Due to the use of tens of thousands of drones, it is practically impossible to overcome this battlefield. If Russia were to send another 300,000 troops, it would not be enough, because they would face a wall of Ukrainian drones,” the expert stated.
Looking for loopholes
M. Raisner believes that the current task for the Russians is to find those loopholes that are Ukraine’s “Achilles’ heel”.
“It is precisely these weak points that they need to strike, so that later, using the momentum of mobilization, they can achieve a breakthrough. However, they have not yet found these weak points and ‘Achilles’ heels’. They are looking for them, but have not yet achieved a real breakthrough. There are various technological and tactical methods, but there is no real success yet,” the expert said about the situation.
He speculated that such a situation could change, but if everything remains as it is, Russia will lose the strategic initiative for a long time: “The decisive moment will be when, due to Ukrainian strikes deep into the territory, Russia’s industrial complex suffers such significant losses that they become irreparable. If at the same time Russia does not achieve success at the front, it may be forced to agree to a ceasefire, because otherwise the losses will become too long-term.”
They have not yet found the weak points and “Achilles’ heels”.
Until winter
The Russian operational goal this summer is clear – they are trying to capture the “fortress cities” belt, which consists of Konstantinovka, Druzhkovka, Kramatorsk, and Slaviansk, and thus take control of the entire Donbas.
The expert assured that both sides aim to achieve a decisive result before winter.
“Ukraine knows that it has time until approximately autumn to force Russia to agree to a ceasefire. After that, a difficult winter phase will begin again, during which powerful Russian strikes on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure are expected, which is still damaged or partially destroyed since last winter,” the expert said.
On the other hand, according to M. Raisner, the Russians are also trying to achieve some result as quickly as possible: “They know that their time is also running out, because the intensity of Ukrainian strikes deep into Russian territory is constantly increasing.”
M. Raisner added that the stalemate in negotiations with Iran could be beneficial for Ukraine, as US President Donald Trump may refocus his attention on Kyiv.
“He hopes to achieve a result here that he can favorably present in domestic politics and use before the Congressional midterm elections,” the expert explained.
Negotiations on ending the war in Ukraine
Currently, negotiations on ending the war are suspended. The main driving force – the US – is preoccupied with the Iran issue.
Meanwhile, on July 8, US President D. Trump announced changes in the conditions that Vladimir Putin is setting to end the war against Ukraine. D. Trump stated on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Ankara that these conditions have begun to soften.
When asked if D. Trump is ready to pressure V. Putin if he refuses to end the war, the White House chief replied that pressure is already being applied.
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