As noted by Professor Katarzyna Zysk of the Norwegian Defence Research Institute, the disappearance of many air defense systems from Russia’s far northern regions indicates a “growing mismatch between the objectives Russia has to defend and its available launchers, interceptors, and trained personnel.”
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This does not mean that Russia’s strategic facilities in the Far North are now completely without air defense protection. However, according to her, “this suggests that Russia does not expect a large-scale attack in the region and believes it can reduce the protection there without significant risk.”
Thus, according to “Radio Svoboda” data, about 60 percent of Russia’s S-300 and S-400 air defense systems were removed from locations where they were deployed before the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Air defense units mostly remained in place around Russia’s nuclear missile silos and strategic bomber airfields.
For example, in the area of the “Rogachevo” air base, located on the Novaya Zemlya archipelago, most of the air defense systems were removed from the missile base.
In Severodvinsk near the White Sea, where Russian nuclear submarines are built and repaired, several sites that had air defense systems for decades are now left unprotected. Satellite images confirm that about two dozen S-300 and S-400 systems disappeared from locations apparently specially built for this purpose throughout the city.
Meanwhile, the air defense systems disappearing from the Far North region are appearing near more likely targets that Ukrainian drones might attack.
For example, satellite images show that salvo fire systems are now deployed in a previously empty field near the Saratov oil refinery in southwestern Russia. Since early 2025, this oil refinery has been targeted multiple times by drone attacks.
Analyst K. Zysk states that the current conflict shows that “stationary targets are highly vulnerable to drone attacks,” and it is still unclear whether the end of the war in Ukraine will lead to Russian air defense systems returning to their previous positions. Perhaps the Kremlin will develop a “more dispersed, multi-layered” defense model.
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