The Lithuanian Hydrometeorological Service (“Meteo LT”) shared an experimental forecast on its Facebook page about what awaits us throughout August.
However, as warned, the reliability of experimental forecasts is not sufficiently high. Therefore, important decisions should not be made based solely on it: “The provided long-term forecast shows a trend and does not mean that there will be no very cool and/or wet days at all.”
“Based on the latest ECMWF model calculations, it is forecasted that the August temperature (standard climate norm: SCN: 17.6 °C and 77 mm) will be up to 0.5 degrees above normal, and the monthly precipitation amount will be up to 15% less than the 1991–2020 average.
Almost the same results are provided by another (CFSv2) long-term forecast model. August is expected to be up to 0.5° warmer, and precipitation amount up to 10–15% less than normal.
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In summary, the last summer month of 2026 should be slightly warmer and drier than average,” says “Meteo LT.”
The service also provided data about the Augusts of recent years. So:
- August 2025 was cooler and drier than average,
- 2024 was very warm and dry,
- 2023 was very warm and wet,
- 2022 was dry and the hottest in the entire period of modern meteorological observations,
- August 2021 was cool and very wet.
“So, Augusts have been very varied,” informs “Meteo LT,” sharing maps showing ECMWF model air temperature (top) and precipitation amount (bottom) anomaly forecasts for the coming weeks.
On the Meteo.lt page, you can find the updated long-term forecast for the second half of August as of Tuesday. According to it, then the air temperature in Lithuania will be about 0.5 °C higher than the 1991–2020 average, and precipitation amount up to 15% higher.
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